why ai doomsayers are like sceptical theists and why it matters pdf

Why Ai Doomsayers Are Like Sceptical Theists And Why It Matters Pdf

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Ethics of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics

This paper aims to contribute to the futurology of a possible artificial intelligence AI breakthrough, by reexamining the Omohundro—Bostrom theory for instrumental vs final AI goals.

Does that theory, along with its predictions for what a superintelligent AI would be motivated to do, hold water? The two cornerstones of Omohundro—Bostrom theory — the orthogonality thesis and the instrumental convergence thesis — are both open to various criticisms that question their validity and scope. These criticisms are however far from conclusive: while they do suggest that a reasonable amount of caution and epistemic humility is attached to predictions derived from the theory, further work will be needed to clarify its scope and to put it on more rigorous foundations.

The practical value of being able to predict AI goals and motivations under various circumstances cannot be overstated: the future of humanity may depend on it.

Currently, the only framework available for making such predictions is Omohundro—Bostrom theory, and the value of the present paper is to demonstrate its tentative nature and the need for further scrutiny. Report bugs here. Please share your general feedback. You can join in the discussion by joining the community or logging in here. You can also find out more about Emerald Engage. Visit emeraldpublishing. Answers to the most commonly asked questions here.

Abstract Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the futurology of a possible artificial intelligence AI breakthrough, by reexamining the Omohundro—Bostrom theory for instrumental vs final AI goals. Findings The two cornerstones of Omohundro—Bostrom theory — the orthogonality thesis and the instrumental convergence thesis — are both open to various criticisms that question their validity and scope. Please note you do not have access to teaching notes. You may be able to access teaching notes by logging in via Shibboleth, Open Athens or with your Emerald account.

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Challenges to the Omohundro–Bostrom framework for AI motivations

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This paper aims to contribute to the futurology of a possible artificial intelligence AI breakthrough, by reexamining the Omohundro—Bostrom theory for instrumental vs final AI goals. Does that theory, along with its predictions for what a superintelligent AI would be motivated to do, hold water? The two cornerstones of Omohundro—Bostrom theory — the orthogonality thesis and the instrumental convergence thesis — are both open to various criticisms that question their validity and scope. These criticisms are however far from conclusive: while they do suggest that a reasonable amount of caution and epistemic humility is attached to predictions derived from the theory, further work will be needed to clarify its scope and to put it on more rigorous foundations. The practical value of being able to predict AI goals and motivations under various circumstances cannot be overstated: the future of humanity may depend on it. Currently, the only framework available for making such predictions is Omohundro—Bostrom theory, and the value of the present paper is to demonstrate its tentative nature and the need for further scrutiny.

Several research institutes have been set-up to address those risks. And there is an increasing number of academic publications analysing and evaluating their seriousness. In this article, I argue that in defending the credibility of AI risk, Bostrom makes an epistemic move that is analogous to one made by so-called sceptical theists in the debate about the existence of God. And while this analogy is interesting in its own right, what is more interesting are its potential implications. It has been repeatedly argued that sceptical theism has devastating effects on our beliefs and practices.


Recommended Citation. Danaher, John (). Why ai doomsayers are like sceptical theists and why it matters. Minds and Machines 25 (3).


Why AI Doomsayers are Like Sceptical Theists and Why it Matters

Artificial intelligence AI and robotics are digital technologies that will have significant impact on the development of humanity in the near future. They have raised fundamental questions about what we should do with these systems, what the systems themselves should do, what risks they involve, and how we can control these. Many such concerns turn out to be rather quaint trains are too fast for souls ; some are predictably wrong when they suggest that the technology will fundamentally change humans telephones will destroy personal communication, writing will destroy memory, video cassettes will make going out redundant ; some are broadly correct but moderately relevant digital technology will destroy industries that make photographic film, cassette tapes, or vinyl records ; but some are broadly correct and deeply relevant cars will kill children and fundamentally change the landscape. The task of an article such as this is to analyse the issues and to deflate the non-issues.

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Artificial intelligence AI and robotics are digital technologies that will have significant impact on the development of humanity in the near future. They have raised fundamental questions about what we should do with these systems, what the systems themselves should do, what risks they involve, and how we can control these. Then AI systems as subjects , i. For each section within these themes, we provide a general explanation of the ethical issues , outline existing positions and arguments , then analyse how these play out with current technologies and finally, what policy consequences may be drawn.

 - Стратмор пожал плечами.  - Имея партнера в Америке, Танкадо мог разделить два ключа географически.

Я видел схему. Она знала, что это. Как и то, что шахта лифта защищена усиленным бетоном. Сквозь клубящийся дым Сьюзан кое-как добралась до дверцы лифта, но тут же увидела, что индикатор вызова не горит. Она принялась нажимать кнопки безжизненной панели, затем, опустившись на колени, в отчаянии заколотила в дверь и тут же замерла. За дверью послышалось какое-то жужжание, словно кабина была на месте.

Не в силах сдержать нетерпение, Беккер попытался позвонить снова, но по-прежнему безрезультатно. Больше ждать он не мог: глаза горели огнем, нужно было промыть их водой. Стратмор подождет минуту-другую. Полуслепой, он направился в туалетную комнату. Смутные очертания тележки все еще виднелись у двери в мужской туалет, поэтому Беккер снова подошел к дамской комнате. Ему показалось, что внутри звучали какие-то голоса. Он постучал.

 - Это прозвучало как сигнал к окончанию разговора. Он отпил глоток кофе.  - А теперь прошу меня извинить. Мне нужно поработать. У Мидж отвисла челюсть.

Позади закрылась дверь лифта, и она осталась одна в пугающей темноте. В окружающей ее тишине не было слышно ничего, кроме слабого гула, идущего от стен. Гул становился все громче.

5 comments

Gaicrunarhyo

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Daniel B.

Why AI Doomsayers are like Sceptical Theists and. Why it Matters. John Danaher​*. Forthcoming in Minds and Machines DOI: /sy.

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Diego M.

What they are hoping is that their critique highlights the absurdity of the original set of beliefs and commitments. They are trying to make sceptical.

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Diana P.

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Jeannine C.

An advanced artificial intelligence (a “superintelligence”) could pose a significant existential risk to humanity. Several research institutes have been set-up to.

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